Assumption log
Built on WealthKarma, a real retirement app for Gulf expats. Nothing here is invented.
Assumption log11 claims · 5 untested · Aug 2026
01 · What the plan takes as true
Proven
Partly known
Nobody has checked
Tested, and it was false
The claimIf wrongFrom
Expats will pay monthly for a retirement planFatalPricing page
People will move the end-of-service money into a planFatalDeck, slide 6
Employers will hand the app to their staffFatalDeck, slide 9
Someone who signs up will still be paying in year twoFatalDeck, slide 12
Saudi and Qatar will follow BahrainCostlyDeck, slide 7
Enough of them earn enough to saveCostlyDeck, slide 4
Trust is the thing standing in the wayCostlyHomepage
No Gulf state gives expats a pensionCostlyDeck, slide 3
They have been putting it off for yearsCostlyHomepage
They don't know there's no pensionFatalDeck, slide 2
We lose to the other appsCostlyDeck, slide 10
02 · What we already disproved
They don't know there's no pension
Four of five knew, and had done nothing anyway. The plan was built to inform people who are already informed.
We lose to the other apps
Not one of twelve losses went to a competitor. Five chose nothing at all.
03 · What nobody has checked
The four that are fatal, in the order they'd kill it. Each number was written before the test.
Expats will pay monthly for a retirement plan
Cheapest test
A price on the page and a card field. No product behind it.
Passes at
5 of 20 reach the card field
If it fails
The revenue model is the employer, not the saver.
People will move the end-of-service money into a plan
Cheapest test
Ask ten people who just changed jobs what they did with it.
Passes at
3 of 10 still hold it uninvested
If it fails
The gratuity is a talking point, not a source of funds.
Employers will hand the app to their staff
Cheapest test
Take it to eight HR heads and ask for a pilot, not an opinion.
Passes at
2 of 8 agree a dated pilot
If it fails
There is no distribution and every user costs money to find.
Someone who signs up will still be paying in year two
Cheapest test
None yet. Nobody has been a customer for a year.
Nearest read
Whether month-three contributions are still going in.
04 · The finding
Everything the plan has checked is a fact about the market. Nothing it has checked is about whether anyone pays.
05 · What can't be known
Year-two behaviour, until there is a year two.
What was assumed and never written down anywhere.
Whether a test that passes at these numbers holds at scale.